Christmas Tree Prices are Up 25%
Quick Hits From GRIT
Happy Friday Everyone 👋
Did you catch Genevieve talking about her strategy for the market sell-off on Fox Business this week?
I will give you a hint starts with “BTFD”…
SIX things you need to know this week in 60 seconds.
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*as of 4pm ET, 9/30/21
Supply chain issues lead to shortages in…everything
According to Gallup, 60% of US adults couldn’t buy something they wanted over the summer due to product shortages (#FirstWorldProblems). According to the BofA chart above, that summer snag may extend through the holidays.
Let’s check in on the state of retail as it is right now:
Nike is running out of sneakers
There aren’t enough parts for gaming hardware
Costco is rationing toilet paper and Christmas tree prices are up 25%
The scarcity of Rolex watches isn’t strategic, they just don’t have the parts to make them
Burger King, Chick-fil-A, Starbucks, and others are having a tough time sourcing ingredients
Abercrombie & Fitch and Adidas might not have enough merchandise for the holidays
That said, you should probably start ordering those Christmas gifts now!
GRIT’S TAKE: Analysts’ sentiment is showing that these supply chain “bottlenecks” aren’t going to be as easy to resolve as Powell and the Fed were hoping (i.e., inflation = not as “transitory”).
GRIT’S ACTION: Own the king of eCommerce AMZN. Logistics magicians DSG & KXS. Santa’s workshop PKT & Santa’s sleigh CJT.
Under the Radar
A 20+ YEAR OF DRONE INNOVATION: What kind of impact can a drone have on a business or government agency? If it’s a Draganfly, it can do a lot: mapping, surveying, data collection, temperature-sensitive deliveries, thermal, heart rate, and breathing rate scans...get the picture? Where can you find them? On Wall Street*!
YOUR ENTERPRISE BLOCKCHAIN TRANSACTION PROCESSOR: A recent report concluded that BitcoinSV (BSV) is most representative of Satoshi’s original intention for Bitcoin. TAAL is a pure-play on the adoption of BSV, and they’re a revenue-generating machine! Revenue increased more than 6x in Q2 and guidance is calling for a boost of 70-80% for this quarter and we’re talking millions*!
*This is sponsored advertising content.
2. DEALS & IPOs
Bank M&A on pace for 2008 levels
At this point last year, bank merger deals totalled just $17B. This year, $54B in deals have been announced so far, which puts it on pace for the biggest year of M&A since 2008. Back then, a little thing called the Great Financial Crisis (perhaps you’ve heard of it) went down which forced many big banks to sell themselves to avoid collapse.
So why are banks hitting the throttle on M&A now? It’s a continuation of a 2019 trend that was cut short by the pandemic. The difference is this time the size of the deals is much bigger.
You see, the pandemic limited banks’ extensive due diligence process, which can take weeks or months. They were also hoarding cash, fearing COVID-related defaults. Now that the fear has dissipated and the loan defaults never came, it’s full speed ahead with time to make up for and money to do it with.
GRIT’S TAKE: Facing increased competition from the big banks and FinTech, smaller banks are realizing they need to up their digital game and expand their reach to keep up. Expect this bank merger activity to continue.
GRIT’S ACTION: Long large Canadian & US banks and taking another serious look at PayPal, Square and some other fintech that are eating the world.
3. STOCK MARKET
They say “market sell-off”, GRIT says “buying opportunity”
If Boomer media outlets aren’t talking about a 5% correction in the S&P, they’re talking about a 10% correction in the S&P. Some, like financial “guru” Robert Kiyosaki, are smashing the break-in-case-of-emergency glass and calling for a giant crash (AGAIN, as our Outrageous Chartered FinMEME Analyst Dr. Patel hilariously points out above).
But did you know that since May 1, 56% of stocks in the S&P 500 have already experienced a 10% correction? If you look at the stocks in the Russell 2000, that number jumps to 90%.
GRIT’S TAKE: With over 200 days without a 5% correction, the market was looking for a reason to sell and they got it in the form of Evergrande and yields rising. This sell-off is healthy and GRIT is buying the dip!
GRIT’S ACTION: Been buying some of my favourite stocks all month. Find out which one’s by joining hundreds who have upgraded to our paid newsletter HERE.
Winter is coming*
*and we may not have enough natural gas to keep everyone warm.
The nearly 500% spike in European natural gas prices over the past year has forced businesses to slow down production or even come to a halt. With inventories at historic lows, the government is now warning of blackouts and factories being shut down.
The crisis is starting to spread to the rest of the world with demand increasing as temperatures decrease. Countries are scrambling to scoop up supply from exporters like Russia, Qatar, the US, and Trinidad & Tobago, bidding each other up in the process.
“If the winter is actually cold, my concern is we will not have enough gas for use for heating in parts of Europe” - Amos Hochstein, US State Department
Natural gas stocks have been doing well all year due to the shortage (the US Natural Gas ETF is up over 110% YTD), but this crunch going into winter has given them an extra, extra boost.
GRIT’S TAKE: Right now, countries are more reliant than ever on natural gas, but it’s still a transition fuel that will finally get us off dirty coal and oil to more CARBON-FREE sources of energy.
GRIT’S ACTION: Long and strong carbon stocks!
An NFT marketplace for fungible assets
NFTs backed by fungible assets. No, that’s not an oxymoron, it’s reality. 4K is the world’s first marketplace for NFTs backed by physical goods — luxury items and collectibles, specifically. Think Rolexes, Yeezys, Birkins, etc.
It works like this:
You’re browsing NFTs and see a pair of Yeezys that you just have to have (either for your NFT collection or your real-shoes collection)
You buy the NFT (you now own the shoes)
Your 4K concierge reaches out to verify your wallet address and other information
You hold/trade the NFT like you would any other, or
You have the concierge send you the physical shoes, at which point the NFT is destroyed.
GRIT’S TAKE: The concept might seem silly on the surface — why not just buy the shoes? — but a lot of these desirable goods (assets) are not available across all geographies and this platform provides international access to them for anyone with a Metamask wallet.
GRIT’S ACTION: Long & strong ethereum.
Married men with children are suffering from a debilitating condition: PAPER HANDS
According to MIT, the most likely owner of a set of paper hands is a 45-year-old married man with children who self-identifies as having “excellent investing experience”.
The problem with self-identifying as having “excellent investing experience” is that you probably think you can time the market. Sure, you may be able to cushion some of the downfalls with timing, but is your investing experience “excellent” enough to make sure you’re in a position to take advantage of the rebounds? They happen pretty quick, ya know!
All this report tells me is that not enough married men with children are reading GRIT. If they were, they’d know it’s not about timing the market, it’s about time in the market!
GRIT’S TAKE: Check out my full interview on Fox here! I talk with Charles about how I’m playing the market sell-off, what I’m buying, and why GRIT doesn’t play the timing game (hint: 💎👐)!
GRIT’S ACTION: We buy dips we don’t sell them.
6. CNBC, Fox Business
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