Home prices down, sales up
WEDNESDAY MARKET UPDATE
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Good Morning Everyone!
Remember, no one gets rich panic selling.
US home prices finally decline
Avg home price (20-largest cities) dropped by 0.44% in July
First decline since December 2011
Breaks 126-month streak of rising prices
YoY price gains continue decelerating:
Unexpected surge in New Home Sales
Massive surprise jump of +28.8% (vs. -2.2% expected)
New home sales now at pre-pandemic levels
To keep an eye on: homes under construction at elevated levels
Should lead to sharp increase in inventory
Increase in inventory should put further pressure on new home prices
Trade deficit decreased to $87.3 billion in August from $90.2 billion)
Retail Inventories ex auto +0.3% MoM (prev +0.3%)
Wholesale Inventories +1.3% MoM (prev +0.6%)
5 Fed speakers: Bostic (8:35 am EST) , Bullard (10:15 am), Powell (10:15 am), Bowman (11 am), Evans (2 pm)
10:00 am - Pending Home Sales
10:30 am - EIA stocks change
Gilts jump on BOE intervention
UK bonds rally on BOE decision to make temporary purchase of long-dated government bonds, put off reducing size of balance sheet
Will buy bonds from Wednesday to Oct 14
QT start pushed back to Oct 31
US10YR yield rises above 4% for first time since 2008
New report shows US on track to grow production faster than government forecast
12.85 million barrels of crude per day - 250k more than EIA forecast
AAPL 0.00 Apple bails on plans to increase production
Will produce roughly same number of handsets in H2 2022 as same period last year
In line with original forecast
Had recently upgraded sales forecast ahead of iPhone 14 release
Smartphone market expected to shrink 6.5% to 1.27 billion units in 2022
Tune in to the Bullpen today at 3:30 PM ET when Meet Kevin—an expert real estate investor with 1.8MM subscribers on YouTube—will join us LIVE to talk about home prices falling in July and ending a 126-month streak of consecutive monthly increases 👀
Powell talks DeFi:
We need to be very careful about how crypto activities are taken within the regulatory perimeter, where ever they take place […] there is a real need for more appropriate regulation.
Says more regulation needed as DeFi expands, retail participation grows
Noted structural issues and lack of transparency
Celsius CEO resigns
Alex Mashinsky stepped down yesterday
Regretted being a “distraction”…
One of first major lenders to blow up
HOOD 0.00 Robinhood debuts Web3 wallet
Beta testing - 10k users
Polygon will be first blockchain supported
Will eventually be multichain wallet
Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index: Extreme Fear
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The housing market is like a ship: A turn of the wheel isn't felt immediately, but the trajectory becomes clear over time. The signs are unmistakable
- Fed trying to 'Reset' the market
- New home sales down 29% YoY
- Return of 0$ down loans
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