Powell Day 2, Granholm meeting with Energy CEOs
THURSDAY MARKET UPDATE
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Good Morning Everyone!
Remember bulls make money, bears make money, pigs and those who only own speculative companies with no revenue get slaughtered!
Fed’s Powell testimony
Day 1 engineering a soft landing is “very challenging”
Day 2 Today at 10 a.m.
Today: Energy Secretary Granholm is meeting with CEOs of
Exxon, Shell, BP, Chevron, Marathon, Phillips 66, Valero
Purpose of meeting: How can U.S. increase refining capacity and reduce pump prices
C.E.O.’s want government to backstop investment to debottleneck assets
Crude $106 flat, awaiting Granholm meeting
French and German PMI’s came in below consensus
8:30 a.m. Weekly jobless claims
Down 2,000 to 229,000 last week vs. street 226,000
9:45 a.m. U.S. PMI
Commodities pricing in a recession
Even wheat and corn prices are going down
No bid for Travel names (Delta, Carnival)
What will travel demand look like June 2023?
Survey says: DOWN.
Carnival Cruise Lines
Will permanently leave the Russian market
Joins McDonald’s and Starbucks
Cheap stock at only 12 times earnings
Zuckerberg on Mad Money last night
Zuck said Meta is profitable enough to do all three:
Metaverse Zuck thinks by 2030 hopes to have 1 billion people in the Metaverse
AI Reels will use AI to make video recommendations for you (similar to TikTok algo)
Return capital to shareholders (buybacks) though there’s nothing new to announce today
Two legs of monetization
Reels already reached 20% of time spent on Instagram, video 50% of time spent on Facebook
WhatsApp monetize Business Messaging and Commerce
But is it a value trap? Watch this week’s episode of The Bullpen to find out!
J-Pow said yesterday that Fed officials were closely monitoring the crypto markets amid heightened volatility
Fed watching “very carefully”
Doesn’t see “significant macroeconomic implications, so far"
“There is a need for a better regulatory framework”
"The same activity should have the same regulation no matter where it appears, and that isn't the case right now because a lot of the digital finance products, in some ways, are quite similar to products that have existed in the banking system or the capital markets but they're just not regulated the same way. So we need to do that."
DeFi is holding up
Hardly any massive on-chain liquidations/surprises/smart contract failures from the most popular DeFi apps like Aave, Compound, Maker, etc.
Percentage of holdings in wallets labeled as “smart money” spiked to all-time highs last week
Suggests aggressive de-risking + repayment of on-chain loans
Crypto data firm Nansen: “We are already seeing signs of this ratio coming down again, indicating smart money is deploying again”
Finally, we’re still at extreme fear levels:
And Bitcoin has fallen below its 200SMA support:
But we’ve been here before
In fact, 2013 and 2017 were even worse:
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