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Americans are NOT paying off their credit card debt. Over 36% of U.S. adults owe more money in credit card debt than they have saved. And some are turning to credit cards to pay their mortgages.
I don’t need a PhD in economics to know this doesn’t end well.
Prices as of 4 pm EST, 5/18/23
🏦 A week ago, markets placed the odds of a pause at June’s meeting at about 85%.
Today, those chances are down closer to 60% as an increasingly divided Fed sends mixed signals.
Yesterday, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan suggested she was prepared to lift the benchmark rate by 25bps at the next meeting.
Separately, Fed Governor Philip Jefferson presented the case for a wait-and-see approach.
In any case, the Fed’s path from here is anything but certain and all eyes will be on Jerome Powell’s speech at 11 am for more clues.
👷🏼 Initial jobless claims fell by the most since November 2021 last week.
The decline was largely due to a drop in fraudulent claims out of Massachusetts which inflated the previous week’s data.
The 4-week average edged down while continuing claims fell to the lowest since early March.
Overall, the data point to a labor market that remains relatively tight which could keep upward pressure on wages.
🏘️ Sales of existing US homes declined 3.4% in April to the lowest in 3 months.
Monthly sales have dipped in 14 out of the last 15 months.
On a year-over-year basis, sales are down 23% and have shown a decline for 20 consecutive months.
Meanwhile, the median price of those homes fell by the most in 11 years, declining 1.7% in April from a year earlier to $388,800.
Charlie Bilello
🐭 Walt Disney Co. has had an eventful few weeks.
Earlier this month, the company was sued by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis over alleged state law violations related to its theme park operations.
Now, it’s shutting down its luxury Star Wars-themed hotel for reasons that could be related to the suit.
It also axed plans for a new $900 million corporate campus and the relocation of more than 2,000 employees.
Separately, Disney announced plans to remove certain programs from its streaming services in cost-cutting measures meant to enhance profitability.
📈 The S&P 500 closed at its highest level of the year yesterday.
Investors shrugged off hawkish comments from Fed officials on optimism of a debt-ceiling resolution as early as next week.
The index closed at its highest since August while its tech-heavy counterpart–the Nasdaq–similarly reached new YTD highs.
Gains were driven by Big Tech where Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Netflix all notched new 52-week highs.
BofA strategist Michael Hartnett, however, isn’t sold on the breakout: he advises selling the S&P at 4,200, pointing to an AI “baby bubble” and a Fed that isn’t done hiking.
⏱️ Meanwhile, the rise in popularity of 0DTE (zero days to expiry) options is affecting the overall behavior of the market.
New studies show the phenomenon is making the market more volatile on a minute-to-minute basis while having little progress day-to-day.
These options may be making the market more susceptible to intraday turnarounds, or mean reversions.
0DTE options now account for more than 40% of the total options volume for the S&P 500.
University of Utah
🛢️ Crude oil prices are headed for their first weekly gain in over a month.
As with stocks, fading risk of a US default is outweighing fears of potential rate hikes which would hurt demand.
Additionally, Chinese oil refinery throughput data from April indicate strong domestic demand for fuel.
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