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Good Morning Everyone!
Remember, the stock market will bottom before the economic data gets better.
MARKET UPDATE
Markets have calmed down. VIX hit 34 in May.
Lots of economic data today but it won’t change FOMC 75 point hike expected July 27
8:30 a.m. May’s advance goods trade balance
9:00 a.m. April Housing data and S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller
10:00 a.m. June Consumer Confidence and Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
What’s copper doing?
What’s Lumber doing?
China
Reduces quarantine times for inbound travelers from 14 to 7 days
President Xi will leave the mainland for the 1st time since January 2020 when he visits Hong Kong
Shanghai Disneyland set to reopen Thursday as local Covid wave subsides
China markets up 1% on the news
Crude 111 +1%
United Arab Emirates (UAE)
UAE’s oil minister said UAE producing at maximum capacity based on it OPEC+ quota of 3.168 mm/d
Implying that UAE could do more but the quota constrained them.
The oil minister did not offer an assessment of Saudi Arabia’s incremental capacity.
Global spare capacity is pretty limited at this stage to UAE and Saudi Arabia (should keep oil prices near current levels).
Russia/Ukraine War
Zelensky spoke with G-7 and said he wants the war to be over by year end
Amazon
For the 1st time, AMZN will host 2 Prime Day shopping events in 2022
July 12-13 and another in Q4
AMZN likely to clear excess inventory
Taiwan Semiconductor
6% price hike in 2023
Nike -2%
lower EPS guidance
voiced caution on China
Global sales +3%, inventory up 23%
CRYPTO UPDATE
FTX seeking path to buy Robinhood
Sam Bankman-Fried (FTX CEO) disclosed 7.6% $HOOD stake in May
$HOOD +14% at close
Robinhood has 22.8 million accounts
Record outflows for digital assets last week
Total outflows of $423M
Led by Bitcoin outflows of $453M
Short-Bitcoin assets saw inflows of $15.3M following the launch of $BITI
Silver lining: Ethereum snapped an 11-week outflow streak with inflows of $10.9M
YTD flows
Bitcoin +$26.2M
Ethereum -$448.3M
Solana +$109.3M
But there’s some good news
Bitcoin long-term HODL’ers are capitulating, which is similar to what has occurred near the final stages of previous bear markets:
MEME OF THE DAY
How’s WallStreetBets feeling this morning?
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